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What Happens after the 2019 Trump-Kim Summit?


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What Happens after the 2019 Trump-Kim Summit?

The abrupt end to the February 2019 Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam shows both leaders’ failed approaches via “big threats, big egos, and bad bets” as New York Time’s journalists report. Without an anticipated deal on nuclear policies, liaisons, easing sanctions or peace affirmations, the world senses the setback looming larger. At the Singapore summit in 2018, there was the hope of reconvening to sign a declaration of peace. Now that the confidence subsides, what happens next?

The North Koreans had been playing hardball ahead of the summit, hoping to lift sanctions. In exchange, they were willing to concede nuclear facility closures. Trump’s unexpected departure from the negotiation table signifies a stance of taking no deals when the US demands are not met. Meanwhile, conflicting narratives seem to indicate the disparity of expectations has developed to hinder clear communications and understandings. Trump claims the North Koreans demanded sanctions to be lifted entirely; the North Koreans insist they only ask for partial easing of sanctions. Kim hopes to advance North Korea’s economic goals and normalize relations with the US; Trump desires to see a denuclearized North Korea and advance his image/glory on the world stage.

The failed summit leaves the future of US-North Korean diplomacy uncertain. North Korea puts it out there that US is "missing an opportunity that comes once in a thousand years"; the US on the other hand, keeps the door open to further negotiations. NPR publishes an analysis by Professor Samore of Brandeis University that surmises “a blessing in disguise”:

"Kim Jong Un will not abandon negotiations and will not resume nuclear and missile testing. First, North Korea has already made sufficient progress toward the development of thermonuclear weapons and long-range missiles so that a continuation of the moratorium on testing does not impose a significant technical price…. A resumption of testing might provoke Beijing and Moscow to once again join Washington's campaign of 'maximum pressure.'"

A real deal may not be so far-fetched. There may be more developments to come inevitably.

Will North Korea move from the modest dismantling of Yongbyon nuclear site to a level of denuclearization acceptable to the global community? Will Kim, who gained spotlight through expansion of nuclear weapons, be willing to reduce or eliminate weapons of mass destruction? Will Trump exercise diplomatic prudence and work with his advisors and allies to seek the best courses of actions? What reciprocal actions will the US and its allies need to take to reach a real deal? These are the questions to ponder. There are many factors and nuances that will affect the outcome these globally important negotiations.

2019年美韩峰会之后续情节

正如纽约时报记者所报导,2019年2月在越南举行的美韩峰会突然结束,显示两位领导人通过“威胁,自我扩张和赌注”的方式来进行谈判,结果两败俱伤。当今,核武政策未定,协调机构未置,宽松经济制裁或和平肯定的预期协议未成,世人感受到莫大的挫折。在2018年的新加坡会议上,川普和金正恩有希望随后签署和平宣言。现在信心消退了,后续情节将备受瞩目。

在峰会前,北韩人坚信能解除经济制裁。作为交换筹码,他们愿意废止一些核武设施。川普突然结束谈判乃意味着当美国的要求得不到满足时,任何交易将无法达成。与此同时,相互矛盾的说法似乎证实了双方期望的差异,阻碍了明确的沟通和理解。川普声称北韩要求完全取消经济制裁;北韩则坚称他们只要求部分放宽制裁。金希望推进北韩的经济目标,并促成与美国关系的正常化;川普希望看到一个无核化的北韩,并在世界舞台上提升他的形象荣耀。

失败的峰会使美韩外交的未来不确定。北韩认为,美国“错过了千载难逢的谈判机会”;另一方面,美国则为进一步谈判敞开大门。 NPR发布了Brandeis大学Samore教授的分析,该分析推测此次峰会堪称楇中存福:

金正恩不会放弃谈判,也不会恢复核武和导弹试验。首先,朝鲜已经在开发热核武器和远程导弹方面取得了足够的进展,因此继续暂停试验是无可厚非的...。恢复测试可能会激起北京和莫斯科再次加入华盛顿对其“大施压力”的阵容。

如此看来,真正的交易可能不如想象的难,而后续情节也势必会再发展。

北韩是否会从废止宁边核电站转向进行全球社会可接受的无核化行动?通过扩大核武器而获得注目的金正恩是否愿意减少或消除大幅杀伤性武器?川普是否会谨慎行事,并与其顾问和盟友合作,寻求最好的行动方案?美国及其盟国需要采取什么样的互惠行动才能达成真正的协议?这些是值得思考的问题。许多因素和细微差别将影响这一关系全球福祉的重要谈判结果。

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